Is there foreign exchange trading over the weekend?
By Chris Melendez
In order to have a better understanding of these fiascos, one has to have a
little bit of history. Real exchange rates are set by banks and in the end
determined by capital flows. Before the electronic age in fx, rates were set by
banks using voice brokers. Banks also traded directly through one another via
phone, and the Reuters dealing system. dealing would start in
Auckland/Wellington on Sunday afternoon/Monday morning Wellington time.
Australian banks would start early Monday too. Not every bank in the world had
New Zealand or Australian branches. So on Friday afternoon, they would telex
their orders to a friendly bank down under and have them watched until their
Tokyo branch came in. Some banks wouldn't even consider the early Pacific region
a viable center, and would send their orders directly to their Tokyo or
Singapore branch.
So in New Zealand, the dealer would look at where his currency closed. Let's say
dollar yen closed at 118.00. He would look at his orders which were at 117.90 to
buy and 118.10 to sell. He would then punch into the phone line to his broker
and say ninety-ten I deal. There would be the New Zealand open of dollar yen. 20
points wide. Then another bank would be a better buyer, and punch into the same
broker and say ninety eight bid. Another bank might be a better seller and say,
03 I sell. Thus, 98-03 would be a reasonable dealing spread. This would be the
same for the other major currencies. Scandinavian and some European currencies
were not traded until at least Tokyo opened.
Sometimes, before the first price was made by the dealer, there might have been
a geopolitical event that had happened over the weekend. It could be a comment,
terrorist event, natural disaster, or even a revaluation/devaluation. Since we
are on yen, let's say that for example, over the weekend, Tokyo had a horrific
earthquake. This would obviously be bad for Japan, and the yen. The yen dealer
at the bank would know this, and at the very least would not want to be selling
dollars and buying yen. More accurately, he would raise his bids much higher in
the market. An American dealer in Sydney was famous for this. He might have had
a 120.40 stop loss for good amount, and trigger it. Other banks would have
similar orders, and follow suit. That is how true 'gaps' happen.
In the early nineties EBS (or electronic broking system) was created by a
consortium of 14 banks, and almost completely did away with voice brokers. It is
the benchmark for establishing highs and lows in most currencies with the
exception of cad, sterling, and sometimes aussie dollar. Banks relied more and
more on the EBS, and a whole consolidation of the industry started to happen.
Banks would close branches, and many, even go 24 hours.
This whole business of retail platforms filling their customers on stops before
the real market opens is rubbish. These platform operators are making an
absolute fortune doing it.
There used to be some trading on Saturday within the Arab world, and some
bullion trading in between the houses in Hong Kong, but it was not recognized in
the real world.
Prices are only as good as the people who input them. The market opens in
Wellington in the morning. Anything in between New York close on Friday, and the
Wellington open is not real. Anyone who wants to tell you different should go
back to Macau, Vegas, or Atlantic City...
The Trading Sessions
There are actually five
over-lapping trading sessions that trade 24 hours a day between Sunday evening
and Friday evening. The New York exchange trades from 7:30 am to 5 pm EST. The
Sydney, Auckland and Wellington exchanges trade from 3 pm to 11 pm EST. The
Tokyo Exchange trades from 6pm to 11 pm, they stop to take a lunch break for an
hour, then trade until 4 am EST. The Hong Kong and Singapore exchanges trade
from 7 pm to 3 am EST. The last exchanges to trade are the Munich, Zurich,
Paris, Frankfurt, Brussels, Amsterdam, and London exchanges, which trade from
2:30am to 11:30 am EST.
|
|