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Crude Oil (NYM): (High: Oct//Low: Dec) Twin peaks in demand built on pillar of primary product demand. Weakness into Feb due to reduced demand for heating oil. Strength into Mar-May as inventories of gasoline built prior to US driving/vacation consumption. Lowest consumption of heating oil Jun-Aug, but demand for inventory grows prior to winter. Decline into Dec as refiners sharply curtail purchases to avoid year-end inventory tax.

WTI Global Spot:

Crude Oil Seasonal

Possible trade: Seasonal rise in crude oil, starting on July 24 and ending on September 18. The increase was observed in 17 of 24 years, resulting in an average profit of +12.6%. But there were also 7 years, where the price of crude oil fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -5.4%. The overall rise during all 24 years was +7.1% p.a..


 
Crude Oil(NYM)-August
Buy on approximately 03/20 - Exit on approximately 05/17 Contract Size: 1,000 barrels

Cont
Year
Buy
Date
Buy
Price
Exit
Date
Exit
Price

Profit
Profit
Amount		 Best
Equity
Date		 Best
Equity
Amount		 Worst
Equity
Date		 Worst
Equity
Amount
2006 03/20/06 64.20 05/17/06 70.33 6.13 6130.00 05/02/06 12520.00    
2005 03/21/05 58.55 05/17/05 51.21 -7.34 -7340.00 04/04/05 570.00 05/16/05 -7730.00
2004 03/22/04 35.01 05/17/04 40.97 5.96 5960.00 05/17/04 5960.00 04/01/04 -2160.00
2003 03/20/03 26.51 05/16/03 28.10 1.59 1590.00 05/14/03 1670.00 04/29/03 -1500.00
2002 03/20/02 24.90 05/17/02 27.00 2.10 2100.00 05/14/02 3120.00 04/12/02 -1500.00
2001 03/20/01 26.19 05/17/01 29.24 3.05 3050.00 05/01/01 3170.00 04/02/01 -360.00
2000 03/20/00 25.67 05/17/00 28.96 3.29 3290.00 05/16/00 3410.00 04/10/00 -2750.00
1999 03/22/99 15.59 05/17/99 17.76 2.17 2170.00 05/05/99 2780.00 03/24/99 -270.00
1998 03/20/98 15.61 05/15/98 15.82 0.21 210.00 03/26/98 1860.00    
1997 03/20/97 21.31 05/16/97 22.02 0.71 710.00 05/16/97 710.00 04/04/97 -1960.00
1996 03/20/96 18.39 05/17/96 18.84 0.45 450.00 04/29/96 1600.00    
1995 03/20/95 18.20 05/17/95 19.60 1.40 1400.00 05/01/95 1620.00 03/21/95 -40.00
1994 03/21/94 15.40 05/17/94 17.06 1.66 1660.00 05/12/94 2030.00 03/28/94 -940.00
1993 03/22/93 19.98 05/17/93 20.02 0.04 40.00 04/02/93 920.00 05/14/93 -10.00
1992 03/20/92 19.19 05/15/92 20.91 1.72 1720.00 05/11/92 1940.00    
Percentage Correct 93      
Average Profit on Winning Trades 2.18 2177.14   Winners 14
Average Loss on Trades -7.34 -7340.00   Losers 1
Average Net Profit Per Trade 1.54 1542.67   Total trades 15

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