Gold intraday pattern
By Dimitri Speck (27 October 2006)
Since August 5, 1993, there has been a systematic attempt to administer downward
impulse to the gold price through loans and sales of the metal. How do we know
the date when the systematic interventions began? By observing their execution
times. These actions are not divided evenly throughout the day, but instead tend
to focus on important time points such as the PM-Fixing and the New York closing
price. Additionally, COMEX trading hours are preferred. This creates an
intra-day pattern that can be statistically identified and allows us to pinpoint
the starting date of the interventions on August 5, 1993.This intra-day
anomaly existed for a very long time, but has weakened the last few years in the
course of the continued upward trend in prices. The attached chart shows the
average intra-day trend of all days for which there are high numbers of price
fixings. The right axis shows the price, the bottom scale the time of day. The
average is calculated by taking the minute by minute prices throughout the day
from about 2000 days and consolidating them as a single day. Thus this so-called
intra-day seasonal chart shows at a glance how intra-day prices behaved over the
last eight years.
Clearly visible is the price decrease at the time of the London afternoon
fixing. The minor lows near the morning fixing as well as the open and close in
New York are all worth noting. Also conspicuous is that during American market
hours the price generally trends sideways, in contrast to the rest of the time
when it is moving upwards.
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