| Statistical Effect of Closing Position in
Daily Range on Direction of Following Day's Close, USD Majors, Jan
1986-Apr 2001* |
| Position of Close Above/Below % of Daily
Range |
Statistical Probability of Next Day's Close
Continuing Strength or Weakness |
| exactly at high or low |
|
40% |
|
|
within 10 pips of high or low |
|
44% |
| > 95% of range |
|
44% |
|
|
within 90-95% of range |
|
47% |
| > 90% |
|
45% |
|
|
within 85-90% |
|
42% |
| > 85% |
|
44% |
|
|
within 80-85% |
|
43% |
| > 80% |
|
43% |
|
|
within 75-80% |
|
44% |
| > 75% |
|
43% |
|
|
within 70-75% |
|
51% |
| > 70%
| |
45% |
|
|
within 65-70% |
|
62% |
| > 65% |
|
50% |
|
|
within 60-65% |
|
67% |
| > 60% |
|
56% |
|
|
within 55-60% |
|
58% |
| > 55% |
|
57% |
|
|
within 50-55% |
|
53% |
| > 50% |
|
56% |
|
*Analysis provided by Marshall Kerr
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